10 soccer betting tips

Below is a list of 10 tips that can come in handy when betting on soccer.

As with other sports, the variables in soccer are many, and despite best efforts, chaos can often unfold in a match that features 22 players on the field and hundreds of actions taking place over 90 minutes. One red card, one injury, or one goal is enough to change the course of a match.

With that said, preparation and information can only help:

1. ALWAYS check lineups and injury news before wagering

The assumption is that any bettor is monitoring injury news. But the injury monitoring isn’t always enough. DO NOT lock in bets, especially wagers on individual players, until you see the official starting lineup for that particular match.

For example, if you want to bet on Vpbet to score a goal in a match, make sure he is both healthy and in the starting lineup! You might lose a good price on the bet by not betting in advance, but that’s preferable over losing the entire bet before the match has even kicked off.

Even if a player is healthy and playing consistently, coaches and managers often rotate players based on pre-determined workload schedules which are not made public. In other cases, certain players are preferred against particular opponents based on specific skill sets that line up with the tactical approach to the match. Therefore, it’s hard to predict who will play from game to game — so don’t bother! Just wait until the lineups are announced.

2. Check a team’s schedule & travel load

While there are additional substitutions allowed in the Premier League this season which affords teams more player rotation, travel and fixture congestion can still present a significant drain on a squad, especially one with little depth.

Always give a glance at a team’s recent and upcoming schedule: How far has the team had to travel recently and in what timeframe? Have any players been overused lately? Has there been a regular rotation? Is the team trending up or down? Are recent results indicators of fatigue?

One other schedule consideration: Players and coaches will never admit it, but trap games are real. A “trap game” is considered a game against a side deemed to be an inferior opponent. If that happens to come directly before a bigger match against a more important club, players and their coach might find themselves looking ahead despite their best judgment.

3. Historical trends matter, but recent trends matter more

As with other sports, trends are an important part of research into soccer betting.

Historical trends between two teams, including at the specific stadium where a match will be played, are a popular part of soccer match previews. However, recent trends matter more, especially with clubs changing players and coaches from season to season.

How a team has played against the opponent recently (or against an opponent with a similar style and comparable quality) is more relevant to a bet than a head-to-head matchup from 10 years prior.

4. Road and home form can be important

Road and home form can come into play when handicapping a match. Teams often play quite differently at home versus on the road.

For example, in the 2021/22 Premier League season, Leicester City were excellent within the friendly confines of their King Power Stadium, with 10 wins, four draws, and five losses (a combined +11 goal differential at home). Four of their five home losses came against Top 5 teams. Meanwhile, on the road, they won just four games, drawing six and losing nine, with a -8 goal differential (i.e. they allowed eight more goals than they scored on the road).

That poor road form translated to other competitions. Leicester City crashed out of the FA Cup on the road at Championship side Nottingham Forest, they lost twice on the road in the Europa League group stage leading to elimination, and they were dumped from the Europa Conference League semifinals with a 1-0 loss on the road at AS Roma.

It’s just as important to know when there is no meaningful disparity in the home/road splits. Not every team is impacted by it, and the stats will bear this out in those cases.

5. Dive into the advanced statistics

There is plenty of data available nowadays that can shine a light on how teams and players might perform against certain opponents or certain playing styles.

Statistics like expected goals (for and against), individual duels won or lost, pressure rates and many others can help inform a bettor. Identifying individual player matchups within a game can also be a good way to find an edge in the betting market.

For example, Tottenham striker Harry Kane turned on the jets in the second half of the 2021/22 season. After he scored just five goals through the first 22 games, who saw the late-season revival coming? Well, plenty of those who did their research.

Through his first 22 matches of the campaign, Kane amassed 9.38 expected goals (xG — more on expected goals below), but he only found the back of the net five times, a differential of -4.38. But Kane has been an xG overperformer his entire career, and thus his underperformance over a small sample size suggested a correction to the mean.

Sure enough, through the final 16 matches of the season, Kane scored 12 goals on an xG of 9.38 (an overperformance of +2.62), helping his team secure a Champions League place on the final week of the season. Those who took the time to find these numbers likely had the jump on this late-season burst.

6. Watch a team before betting on or against them

As you can imagine, going solely off numbers on a computer screen will only get you so far — you need to watch the teams play. The eye test is just as important as the readout on paper.

Watching games will tell you things that statistical measurements can’t, such as a team’s tactical balance, whether the manager makes adjustments and impacts matches with substitutions, how a team responds when faced with adversity, and how certain players perform in various environments.

Consuming the game is the only way to truly get a feel for a team’s or player’s on-field personality, which in turn should translate into an ability to identify value picks in the betting market.

7. Look at the pressing stats

Nowadays, pressing and counter-pressing have become such an important part of the style and identity of numerous clubs at the highest levels. It’s so prevalent, that it’s important to understand how effective clubs are both when applying the press against other teams and when playing through an opponent’s press. Do they press from the opening minute? Do they not even bother pressing because they’re comfortable sitting back and absorbing pressure?

Basic data that can help understand the effectiveness of a team’s press has become available to the general public in recent years, though more revealing granular data is still kept under wraps for clubs to pay top dollar for it. Here are some common stats that can help paint a picture when taken together:

Total pressures, and successful pressures (also, by a team’s opponents)
Pressure success rates in specific zones (also, for a team’s opponents)
Possessions lost (also, an opponent’s possessions lost)
Duels won and lost
Total defensive actions (and an opponent’s defensive actions)
Passes per defensive action (PPDA): How many passes the team in question allows an opponent to string together on average
Offensive passes per defensive action (OPPDA): How many passes the team in question strings together on average against opponents

Teams that press well can be dangerous in transition. Conversely, those teams that are mistake-prone can end up getting skewered by pressing opponents.

Take Leeds United in 2021/22: They were a team that took extreme risks under ex-manager Marcelo Bielsa, playing a high line and attempting to overwhelm an opponent before that opponent had a chance to do the same thing to Leeds. With the right players, it’s a strategy that can be effective. But at Leeds, it began to backfire. The second goal in this 4-1 loss to Arsenal is an example of Leeds getting exposed and carved up.

8. How does a team create its goals?

There are plenty of stats that shine a light on a team’s primary methods of creating goalscoring opportunities.

Do they possess the ball heavily and look to break down the opponent in the final third? (Ex. high number of touches or passes in final third)
Do they sit back and absorb pressure hoping to find moments to counter-attack? (Ex. low possession percentage, but comparable shots on goal)
Do they go “Route 1” hoofing long balls over the midfield and behind the opposing back line? (Long-distance passes are tracked)
Do they have a key playmaker who’s the source of their big chances? (Big chances per player are tracked)
What do their crossing stats look like?
What facet of the attack is the weakest?

Understanding these strengths and weaknesses helps in handicapping a match.

For example, Liverpool winger Luis Diaz is an on-the-ball dribbling whiz, so if he’s going up against a right-back who struggles in one-on-one defensive situations, it might suggest an advantage for Liverpool. But if the opposing defender is a quality tackler, there’s a chance that Luis Diaz could be kept in check, and the Reds may have to find other ways of creating chances.

9. Don’t buy into juicy storylines or narratives

While it’s part of being a fan to stay up on the storylines, transfer buzz, the general chatter, and the pregame and postgame comments by managers and club executives trying to shape the narrative, those media-hyped storylines often have little actual bearing on how a team plays on the field.

The team’s recent trends, recent matchups against an opponent (or similar opponent), and player form all weigh more heavily when it comes to determining a team’s success or failure in a match. Sure, major headlines and storylines still have the potential of upsetting the preparations or the psychological makeup of a team, and they’re important to monitor nonetheless.

Here’s something else to consider: If a story gets significant media traction, it could actually skew the odds by steering the majority of bettors to a particular side. This and other fluctuations in the betting market in reaction to news stories could present some opportunities for those who can sift through or block out the noise.

10. Anticipate the crazy!

Soccer is a game of skill, speed, anticipation, technical ability, and teamwork, but it can also sometimes feel like a crazy game of chance with a single deflection enough to wreak havoc on the final result!

So factoring a little of the unexpected in your betting is not a terrible strategy.